One other week means one other heavy underdog getting tons of cash thrown its method. That is attention-grabbing as a result of the canine appears to win when bettors throw some huge cash behind it. Simply this season, many of the critiques I’ve written about have surrounded the 6-1 New York Giants. Large Blue has an unimaginable skill to manage the tempo of play, dominate time of possession, but nonetheless handle massive performs — an enormous motive for his or her success regardless of an apparent lack of expertise.
The G-Males have labored their method out of the underdog gap it appears. As an alternative, a brand new contender has joined the fray— the Carolina Panthers, who’re being quarterbacked by a former XFL MVP, P.J. Walker.
Based on OddsChecker US, 60 p.c of moneyline bets on the upcoming Panthers-Falcons recreation have gone in favor of Carolina, who would be the highway workforce on this contest.hat would possibly truly be a bonus. The Panthers have received their final two highway matchups in opposition to Atlanta and inside this collection, the highway workforce has wound up profitable every of the final 4 and 5 of the final six.
Moreover, it’s onerous to move up on the Carolina Panthers after Walker and firm simply dominated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21-3. That stated, the Falcons are 2-1 at house this 12 months with a win over the 49ers, so how dependable is the betting pattern actually?
The Soiled Birds run the ball on the second-highest charge within the NFL (60.6 p.c) — forward of solely the Chicago Bears (64 p.c). The Carolina Panthers have top-of-the-line run defenses within the NFL, a minimum of by way of yards allowed per carry (4.1 yards allowed per rush — seventh in NFL). They’re additionally top-10 in defensive first down rush proportion (23.4 p.c), and really lead the NFL in anticipated factors added by their dashing protection (22.17), in response to Professional-Soccer-Reference.
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After every thing I simply stated, you’d in all probability assume I’d be leaning closely into Carolina’s favor as nicely, however I’m not. Why? As a result of San Francisco additionally has an elite run protection, and the Atlanta Falcons dominated the Niners.
Utilizing the run recreation to open up the passing assault is what made Atlanta so dominant in that recreation. The Falcons weren’t very efficient working the ball. Caleb Huntley and Tyler Allgeier averaged lower than 4 yards per carry. Certain, that’s fairly par for the course for any workforce enjoying in opposition to the 49ers, however except you’re averaging shut to 5 yards per carry, most groups are inclined to run the ball much less as the sport progresses. Not Atlanta. The Falcons ran the ball with both Huntley or Allgeier 31 occasions, with 14 of these carries coming within the first half earlier than any regular workforce would begin giving into recreation script. That doesn’t embody runs by QB Marcus Mariota or Avery Williams both. That quantity can be method increased if that was the case.
Within the passing recreation, Mariota went 13-for-14 by means of the air. Everyone knows he isn’t essentially the most correct quarterback, however even he was capable of dissect the 49ers protection. Was loads of it attributable to nice play design by head coach Arthur Smith? In all probability. Nonetheless, a minimum of within the first half, most of Atlanta’s massive move performs didn’t come off play motion or fast display passes. They had been simply both good pre-snap reads, Atlanta receivers discovering a gap in protection, or Mariota stepping up and making a play along with his legs. Certain, the landing to MyCole Pruitt was off play motion, however by way of the drive down the sphere virtually all of those aerial performs had been on fundamental dropbacks. Identical goes for the Falcon’s second landing drive capped off with a Mariota dashing TD.
Whereas Carolina’s offense regarded considerably potent final week, I’m not able to name a workforce led by Walker, DJ Moore, and D’Onta Foreman higher than San Francisco. Atlanta’s protection was capable of deal with a Christian McCaffrey-less 49ers workforce and shouldn’t have a harder time with a Run CMC-less Panthers workforce. There’s simply no method I see the Panthers dealing with the Falcons in addition to bettors appear to imagine. Contemplating the San Franmanhandled the Panthers just some weeks in the past, I’m leaning closely in Atlanta’s favor. Certain, Carolina has arguably a greater quarterback now, however that received’t be sufficient to grant a win. Give me Atlanta minus-four.
